tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, UA 297 at 07:34, with a 14% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 297 United Flight history → EWR 07:34 BZN 10:21 14% 4% 1.0% 90%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Bozeman on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Bozeman is 2 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LGA 06:25 → MSP 08:18DL 2510 2h 41m Minneapolis MSP 10:59 → BZN 12:35DL 2946 8h 10m 99% 92%
UnitedDetails → EWR 07:50 → DEN 10:09UA 1758 3h 21m Denver DEN 13:30 → BZN 15:18UA 513 9h 28m 100% 86%
DeltaDetails → JFK 06:00 → ATL 08:29DL 2286 2h 49m Atlanta ATL 11:18 → BZN 13:20DL 406 9h 20m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → JFK 11:14 → SLC 14:21DL 917 1h 30m Salt Lake City SLC 15:51 → BZN 17:14DL 3676 · flown by SkyWest 8h 00m 95% 85%
UnitedDetails → LGA 06:10 → ORD 07:49UA 2389 1h 21m Chicago ORD 09:10 → BZN 11:44UA 224 7h 34m 98% 85%
UnitedDetails → EWR 06:00 → LAX 08:53UA 2434 3h 57m Los Angeles LAX 12:50 → BZN 16:24UA 2212 12h 24m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → JFK 07:00 → SEA 10:14DL 699 1h 36m Seattle SEA 11:50 → BZN 14:45DL 4104 · flown by SkyWest 9h 45m 98% 82%
UnitedDetails → EWR 14:40 → DEN 16:58UA 2120 2h 27m Denver DEN 19:25 → BZN 21:14UA 1347 8h 34m 94% 79%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → EWR 09:15 → LAX 11:53UA 2692 57m Los Angeles LAX 12:50 → BZN 16:24UA 2212 9h 09m 70% 60%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON