Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 57 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 2912 at 06:23 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–43%.

Safest bet that day WN 2912 LGA 06:23 → MDW 07:39 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1691 EWR 18:32 → ORD 19:48 · 43% chance 15+ min late · usually 54% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.

WN 2912 Southwest LGA 06:23 MDW 07:39 5% 1% 1.4% no record
UA 2389 United Flight history → LGA 06:10 ORD 07:49 5% 2% 1.0% 89%
WN 2509 Southwest LGA 09:34 MDW 11:05 8% 1% 1.3% no record
AA 1427 American LGA 05:58 ORD 07:19 8% 3% 1.5% no record
AA 1263 American LGA 07:04 ORD 08:45 9% 3% 1.5% no record
UA 530 United Flight history → EWR 06:00 ORD 07:42 9% 3% 1.0% 92%
DL 2917 Delta Flight history → LGA 07:27 ORD 08:50 9% 3% 1.2% 81%
UA 1008 United LGA 07:20 ORD 08:48 10% 3% 1.0% no record
AA 3185 American Flight history → EWR 05:30 ORD 07:15 10% 4% 2.5% 88%
AA 2057 American Flight history → LGA 21:23 ORD 23:29 11% 7% 1.7% 55%
WN 4333 Southwest LGA 12:24 MDW 13:45 13% 3% 1.6% no record
AA 392 American Flight history → LGA 08:08 ORD 09:45 14% 3% 1.5% 87%
UA 1310 United Flight history → LGA 10:15 ORD 11:57 14% 4% 1.0% 80%
AA 3027 American Flight history → EWR 06:43 ORD 08:07 14% 5% 1.5% 87%
UA 2768 United Flight history → LGA 20:30 ORD 22:04 14% 8% 1.1% 47%
B6 905 JetBlue Flight history → JFK 07:05 ORD 08:51 14% 5% 1.1% 90%
AA 3221 American JFK 07:05 ORD 08:42 15% 4% 1.5% no record
UA 1166 United LGA 08:12 ORD 09:35 15% 4% 1.0% no record
AA 2223 American Flight history → LGA 09:26 ORD 10:59 15% 4% 1.5% 88%
UA 2488 United Flight history → EWR 07:59 ORD 09:43 15% 5% 1.0% 88%
DL 2240 Delta Flight history → LGA 11:30 ORD 13:05 17% 5% 1.1% 74%
UA 1967 United Flight history → LGA 13:22 ORD 15:01 17% 7% 1.0% 74%
AA 855 American LGA 10:46 ORD 12:19 17% 5% 1.4% no record
UA 2754 United EWR 07:17 ORD 08:47 17% 5% 1.0% no record
AA 2841 American LGA 22:03 ORD 23:16 18% 8% 1.6% no record
DL 2503 Delta Flight history → LGA 17:55 ORD 19:59 19% 9% 1.1% 62%
UA 1156 United Flight history → LGA 16:05 ORD 17:57 20% 8% 1.4% 53%
UA 1525 United Flight history → EWR 10:24 ORD 12:06 20% 7% 1.0% 79%
UA 2290 United Flight history → EWR 09:20 ORD 11:04 20% 7% 1.0% 83%
AA 386 American LGA 12:34 ORD 14:04 20% 7% 1.5% no record
DL 2226 Delta Flight history → LGA 14:47 ORD 16:20 21% 8% 1.2% 64%
WN 872 Southwest LGA 16:44 MDW 18:05 22% 7% 1.3% no record
AA 788 American JFK 10:42 ORD 12:05 22% 7% 1.4% no record
AA 396 American Flight history → LGA 16:00 ORD 18:08 22% 7% 2.2% 64%
AA 1534 American LGA 14:25 ORD 15:59 22% 8% 1.9% no record
YX 5599 Republic JFK 19:32 ORD 21:13 23% 7% 1.2% no record
UA 1442 United LGA 14:25 ORD 16:01 23% 9% 1.1% no record
UA 1582 United Flight history → LGA 19:31 ORD 20:59 23% 9% 1.0% 60%
AA 4489 American flown by Republic Flight history → JFK 19:11 ORD 20:56 23% 7% 1.2% 82%
AA 752 American EWR 10:46 ORD 12:20 24% 9% 1.7% no record
UA 1439 United EWR 11:13 ORD 12:47 25% 8% 1.0% no record
UA 598 United Flight history → LGA 18:30 ORD 19:59 27% 10% 1.1% 41%
UA 2053 United Flight history → EWR 13:10 ORD 14:53 28% 11% 1.0% 77%
AA 2909 American JFK 15:06 ORD 16:45 29% 8% 2.1% no record
AA 2416 American EWR 14:23 ORD 16:07 30% 13% 1.8% no record
AA 1795 American Flight history → LGA 18:54 ORD 20:10 31% 9% 1.6% 38%
UA 1206 United Flight history → EWR 21:34 ORD 23:03 34% 10% 1.0% 71%
UA 3810 United EWR 13:33 ORD 14:52 34% 11% 1.1% no record
UA 2788 United Flight history → EWR 14:45 ORD 16:28 35% 12% 1.1% 50%
B6 405 JetBlue Flight history → JFK 20:28 ORD 22:08 36% 13% 1.6% 65%
UA 546 United Flight history → EWR 20:19 ORD 22:06 37% 12% 1.0% 69%
UA 1871 United EWR 20:49 ORD 22:22 39% 13% 1.0% no record
UA 661 United Flight history → EWR 16:45 ORD 18:34 39% 10% 1.1% 50%
UA 254 United Flight history → EWR 18:15 ORD 20:10 42% 13% 1.0% 44%
AA 1691 American Flight history → EWR 18:32 ORD 19:48 43% 16% 1.8% 54%
DL 5119 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record JFK 10:30 ORD 12:20 14% 3% 7.0% 86%
DL 4783 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record JFK 15:00 ORD 17:11 26% 14% 23.6% 74%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON