Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 31 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 978 at 06:12 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–43%.

Safest bet that day WN 978 LGA 06:12 → DAL 08:55 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 2840 EWR 18:09 → DFW 20:49 · 43% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 978 Southwest	LGA 06:12	DAL 08:55	3%	1%	1.5%	no record
WN 202 Southwest	LGA 09:54	DAL 12:40	8%	2%	1.2%	no record
AA 1043 American Flight history →	LGA 06:17	DFW 08:52	8%	3%	2.0%	61%
AA 1597 American Flight history →	LGA 07:15	DFW 10:08	9%	3%	1.8%	89%
AA 2728 American Flight history →	EWR 05:51	DFW 08:40	10%	4%	1.7%	95%
DL 873 Delta Flight history →	LGA 08:30	DFW 11:15	11%	4%	1.1%	78%
YX 3603 Republic	EWR 07:02	DFW 09:58	12%	3%	1.4%	no record
AA 1987 American Flight history →	LGA 08:35	DFW 11:25	13%	5%	1.9%	81%
AA 2234 American Flight history →	JFK 08:15	DFW 11:11	14%	4%	1.2%	85%
DL 869 Delta Flight history →	LGA 12:29	DFW 15:10	15%	6%	1.2%	75%
AA 3289 American Flight history →	LGA 08:51	DFW 11:24	16%	4%	1.8%	77%
WN 2529 Southwest	LGA 15:54	DAL 18:40	17%	6%	2.5%	no record
AA 1303 American Flight history →	EWR 08:00	DFW 10:51	17%	6%	1.5%	85%
AA 1010 American	JFK 09:10	DFW 11:44	18%	5%	1.2%	no record
AA 2088 American Flight history →	LGA 11:15	DFW 13:52	18%	6%	2.1%	85%
AA 9833 American	JFK 09:04	DFW 11:30	19%	5%	1.2%	no record
AA 1880 American	JFK 11:38	DFW 14:10	19%	6%	1.1%	no record
AA 1609 American Flight history →	LGA 12:53	DFW 15:52	20%	8%	2.2%	71%
F9 2471 Frontier Flight history →	EWR 13:35	DFW 16:27	22%	11%	1.7%	74%
DL 846 Delta Flight history →	LGA 17:00	DFW 20:13	23%	11%	2.0%	65%
UA 1396 United	EWR 13:08	DFW 15:54	23%	11%	1.4%	no record
AA 1056 American Flight history →	LGA 14:11	DFW 16:47	25%	10%	4.0%	65%
AA 1796 American Flight history →	EWR 12:33	DFW 15:09	25%	10%	1.7%	75%
UA 1590 United Flight history →	EWR 15:30	DFW 18:12	28%	14%	1.2%	71%
AA 1608 American Flight history →	LGA 16:16	DFW 19:06	29%	12%	3.6%	63%
F9 3423 Frontier Flight history →	LGA 22:55	DFW 01:34	29%	15%	5.2%	63%
AA 1953 American Flight history →	JFK 14:42	DFW 17:44	30%	10%	2.5%	69%
DL 496 Delta Flight history →	JFK 17:55	DFW 21:07	33%	15%	6.8%	71%
AA 1810 American Flight history →	EWR 17:10	DFW 20:10	38%	16%	4.8%	47%
AA 606 American Flight history →	JFK 18:43	DFW 21:26	40%	17%	11.9%	60%
UA 2840 United	EWR 18:09	DFW 20:49	43%	23%	6.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON