Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 21 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 431 at 06:44 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 12–27%.

Safest bet that day WN 431 LGA 06:44 → HOU 09:37 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest B6 281 JFK 14:29 → IAH 17:19 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 51% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 431 Southwest	LGA 06:44	HOU 09:37	3%	1%	1.0%	no record
UA 575 United	LGA 05:56	IAH 08:53	6%	2%	0.7%	no record
UA 2371 United Flight history →	LGA 07:47	IAH 10:45	8%	3%	0.7%	93%
UA 492 United Flight history →	EWR 06:00	IAH 08:41	10%	2%	0.7%	92%
UA 2438 United Flight history →	EWR 07:05	IAH 09:50	11%	3%	0.6%	94%
UA 2133 United	LGA 20:27	IAH 23:21	12%	9%	0.7%	no record
DL 2099 Delta Flight history →	LGA 08:59	IAH 11:38	13%	4%	0.7%	76%
UA 2617 United Flight history →	LGA 10:15	IAH 13:06	15%	4%	0.7%	86%
UA 332 United Flight history →	EWR 07:59	IAH 10:44	16%	5%	0.6%	87%
DL 2109 Delta Flight history →	LGA 17:20	IAH 20:40	16%	11%	0.8%	65%
UA 2204 United Flight history →	EWR 12:36	IAH 15:34	16%	6%	0.6%	89%
UA 2674 United Flight history →	LGA 14:00	IAH 17:01	19%	7%	0.7%	64%
UA 556 United Flight history →	EWR 10:51	IAH 13:36	20%	6%	0.6%	77%
UA 1830 United	EWR 14:01	IAH 16:54	23%	10%	0.7%	no record
WN 1158 Southwest	LGA 16:24	HOU 18:59	23%	8%	1.1%	no record
UA 2815 United Flight history →	EWR 15:40	IAH 18:46	23%	11%	0.6%	69%
UA 2425 United Flight history →	EWR 21:05	IAH 23:58	24%	10%	0.7%	75%
B6 1381 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 08:07	IAH 10:53	25%	8%	0.9%	66%
UA 2782 United Flight history →	EWR 17:54	IAH 20:55	27%	13%	0.6%	69%
UA 2127 United Flight history →	EWR 19:59	IAH 22:50	27%	13%	0.7%	68%
B6 281 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 14:29	IAH 17:19	39%	17%	1.0%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON