tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 43 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 2423 at 06:42 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–37%.

Safest bet that day UA 2423 EWR 06:42 → SNA 09:35 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest B6 2073 EWR 20:59 → LAX 23:57 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
UA 2423 United Flight history → EWR 06:42 SNA 09:35 8% 2% 0.8% 94%
AA 171 American Flight history → JFK 06:00 LAX 09:01 9% 2% 1.0% 89%
DL 742 Delta Flight history → JFK 06:53 LAX 09:38 9% 3% 0.7% 78%
DL 403 Delta Flight history → JFK 07:35 SNA 10:28 13% 3% 0.8% 84%
DL 773 Delta Flight history → JFK 09:00 LAX 11:54 13% 3% 0.7% 81%
DL 1905 Delta JFK 11:08 LAX 13:51 13% 3% 0.7% no record
UA 2434 United Flight history → EWR 06:00 LAX 08:53 13% 3% 0.8% 79%
AA 33 American Flight history → JFK 07:05 LAX 10:07 13% 3% 1.0% 90%
AA 2459 American Flight history → JFK 08:14 SNA 11:01 14% 4% 0.8% 91%
AA 1 American Flight history → JFK 09:00 LAX 11:58 14% 3% 1.1% 87%
AA 3 American Flight history → JFK 11:00 LAX 13:58 14% 3% 0.9% 85%
AA 9831 American JFK 08:14 LAX 10:56 15% 4% 1.0% no record
DL 771 Delta Flight history → JFK 14:59 LAX 17:44 15% 6% 0.7% 78%
B6 223 JetBlue Flight history → JFK 08:01 LAX 10:57 16% 4% 0.9% 83%
AA 255 American Flight history → JFK 14:40 LAX 17:48 18% 5% 0.9% 81%
AA 341 American Flight history → JFK 15:40 LAX 18:48 19% 5% 0.9% 77%
DL 707 Delta Flight history → JFK 17:05 LAX 20:20 20% 6% 0.7% 75%
DL 752 Delta Flight history → JFK 20:20 LAX 23:37 20% 6% 0.7% 73%
B6 1573 JetBlue Flight history → EWR 07:00 LAX 09:49 21% 4% 1.0% 76%
UA 2445 United Flight history → EWR 07:00 LAX 09:37 21% 4% 0.8% 81%
DL 738 Delta Flight history → JFK 18:01 LAX 20:53 22% 6% 0.7% 77%
UA 212 United Flight history → EWR 12:00 LAX 14:38 22% 7% 0.7% 78%
AA 117 American Flight history → JFK 20:00 LAX 23:24 22% 6% 0.9% 74%
UA 2477 United EWR 14:35 SNA 17:26 22% 7% 0.7% no record
AA 306 American Flight history → JFK 17:00 LAX 20:19 22% 5% 0.9% 83%
UA 1355 United EWR 16:10 LAX 19:06 23% 7% 0.7% no record
UA 2191 United Flight history → EWR 14:15 LAX 17:13 23% 9% 0.8% 78%
UA 2679 United Flight history → EWR 10:45 LAX 13:41 23% 5% 0.8% 78%
UA 1690 United Flight history → EWR 17:00 SNA 20:06 23% 7% 0.7% 87%worse than usual
DL 1915 Delta JFK 18:54 LAX 21:43 23% 6% 0.7% no record
AA 300 American Flight history → JFK 21:30 LAX 00:54 24% 6% 1.0% 73%
AA 302 American Flight history → JFK 18:10 LAX 21:28 24% 6% 0.9% 76%
B6 623 JetBlue Flight history → JFK 16:36 LAX 19:26 25% 7% 0.9% 74%
UA 2238 United Flight history → EWR 16:00 LAX 18:42 25% 8% 0.7% 70%
UA 2692 United Flight history → EWR 09:15 LAX 11:53 26% 5% 0.8% 69%
B6 358 JetBlue Flight history → JFK 17:16 BUR 20:35 27% 10% 1.7% 71%
B6 1223 JetBlue Flight history → JFK 19:29 LAX 22:46 29% 11% 1.0% 54%
AS 287 Alaska Flight history → EWR 19:29 LAX 22:40 29% 9% 0.9% 74%
B6 355 JetBlue Flight history → JFK 18:49 ONT 21:59 30% 11% 0.8% 62%
B6 923 JetBlue Flight history → JFK 21:40 LAX 00:51 30% 11% 0.9% 58%
UA 2641 United Flight history → EWR 17:10 LAX 20:20 31% 10% 0.7% 72%
UA 353 United Flight history → EWR 18:45 LAX 21:36 37% 11% 0.7% 68%
B6 2073 JetBlue Flight history → EWR 20:59 LAX 23:57 37% 14% 0.8% 68%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →
DeltaDetails → LGA 06:25 → MSP 08:18DL 2510 1h 02m Minneapolis MSP 09:20 → LAX 11:10DL 2102 7h 45m 97% 85%
DeltaDetails → LGA 09:00 → ATL 11:32DL 992 1h 08m Atlanta ATL 12:40 → LAX 14:12DL 895 8h 12m 95% 83%
DeltaDetails → EWR 07:15 → SLC 10:13DL 1009 1h 11m Salt Lake City SLC 11:24 → ONT 12:22DL 1173 8h 07m 91% 83%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON