Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 32 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 1164 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–39%.

Safest bet that day DL 1164 LGA 07:00 → MCO 09:43 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest B6 1827 EWR 20:56 → MCO 23:40 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1164 Delta Flight history →	LGA 07:00	MCO 09:43	8%	3%	4.7%	90%
DL 2049 Delta Flight history →	JFK 07:05	MCO 09:59	10%	3%	4.0%	84%
UA 788 United Flight history →	EWR 06:30	MCO 09:16	11%	3%	4.5%	96%
B6 927 JetBlue Flight history →	EWR 06:07	MCO 08:48	12%	3%	5.3%	90%
B6 599 JetBlue Flight history →	LGA 07:40	MCO 10:23	12%	4%	4.9%	89%
AA 3038 American	LGA 07:41	MCO 10:27	13%	3%	5.5%	no record
DL 2564 Delta Flight history →	LGA 11:49	MCO 14:42	14%	3%	2.0%	80%
UA 411 United Flight history →	EWR 07:45	MCO 10:41	14%	4%	5.4%	98%worse than usual
DL 2019 Delta Flight history →	JFK 09:53	MCO 12:51	15%	3%	10.4%	78%
F9 1659 Frontier Flight history →	EWR 05:52	MCO 08:44	16%	4%	5.1%	83%
DL 2520 Delta Flight history →	LGA 15:55	MCO 19:17	18%	8%	2.1%	62%
DL 1685 Delta Flight history →	JFK 13:05	MCO 15:53	19%	6%	1.6%	76%
B6 499 JetBlue Flight history →	LGA 10:00	MCO 12:51	19%	6%	11.5%	65%
B6 883 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 07:42	MCO 10:28	19%	6%	4.9%	75%
DL 2561 Delta Flight history →	LGA 18:59	MCO 22:18	19%	10%	2.3%	68%
UA 486 United	EWR 09:07	MCO 11:54	20%	6%	4.7%	no record
UA 2396 United Flight history →	EWR 11:05	MCO 13:58	21%	6%	4.4%	87%
B6 183 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 10:09	MCO 12:55	21%	6%	11.9%	81%
AA 1943 American Flight history →	LGA 15:06	MCO 17:55	22%	8%	2.6%	67%
UA 1739 United Flight history →	EWR 10:01	MCO 12:54	22%	6%	13.3%	76%
UA 2215 United Flight history →	EWR 13:03	MCO 15:54	23%	8%	1.4%	81%
B6 83 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 12:15	MCO 15:10	23%	9%	2.1%	69%
DL 1740 Delta Flight history →	JFK 17:17	MCO 19:56	25%	8%	1.5%	67%
UA 1900 United Flight history →	EWR 16:55	MCO 19:56	25%	12%	1.5%	77%
UA 1268 United Flight history →	EWR 15:23	MCO 18:16	27%	11%	1.4%	79%
B6 127 JetBlue Flight history →	EWR 14:07	MCO 16:50	29%	14%	3.0%	75%
UA 1190 United Flight history →	EWR 20:56	MCO 23:58	30%	12%	1.2%	73%
UA 1863 United	EWR 19:12	MCO 22:08	30%	14%	1.5%	no record
B6 399 JetBlue Flight history →	LGA 16:01	MCO 18:46	31%	16%	2.6%	61%
B6 283 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 18:55	MCO 22:08	32%	17%	2.3%	62%
B6 483 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 15:00	MCO 17:47	34%	14%	2.2%	60%
B6 1827 JetBlue Flight history →	EWR 20:56	MCO 23:40	39%	18%	2.3%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON