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Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 60 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 1249 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–43%.

Safest bet that day AA 1249 LGA 06:00 → MIA 09:15 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest B6 1801 JFK 18:16 → FLL 21:18 · 43% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.

AA 1249 American Flight history → LGA 06:00 MIA 09:15 8% 2% 1.5% 94%
DL 2347 Delta Flight history → LGA 07:10 MIA 10:19 11% 3% 1.2% 89%
AA 655 American Flight history → JFK 05:55 MIA 09:12 11% 2% 1.3% 95%
AA 1530 American Flight history → LGA 07:00 MIA 10:15 13% 3% 1.5% 88%
AA 1196 American Flight history → EWR 05:31 MIA 08:45 13% 3% 1.5% 95%
DL 2465 Delta Flight history → LGA 07:20 FLL 10:22 14% 3% 4.8% 81%
DL 1528 Delta Flight history → JFK 07:05 MIA 10:24 14% 3% 1.1% 86%
UA 1364 United Flight history → EWR 06:45 FLL 09:50 15% 4% 4.1% 92%
B6 1505 JetBlue Flight history → EWR 06:00 FLL 09:00 15% 4% 5.4% 82%
B6 1 JetBlue Flight history → JFK 06:00 FLL 09:00 17% 4% 4.8% 85%
AA 970 American Flight history → LGA 08:00 MIA 11:15 17% 3% 1.3% 86%
B6 1471 JetBlue Flight history → LGA 07:30 FLL 10:35 18% 4% 3.6% 82%
DL 1181 Delta Flight history → LGA 11:15 FLL 14:18 18% 5% 2.1% 75%
AA 968 American LGA 08:08 FLL 11:15 19% 3% 3.1% no record
UA 1135 United EWR 07:00 MIA 10:18 19% 4% 1.1% no record
AA 2017 American Flight history → JFK 07:30 MIA 10:45 20% 3% 1.3% 85%
AA 2836 American LGA 12:09 FLL 15:22 20% 6% 2.9% no record
DL 2321 Delta Flight history → LGA 15:30 FLL 18:57 21% 7% 2.2% 66%
DL 1538 Delta Flight history → LGA 11:15 MIA 14:24 21% 5% 1.2% 77%
DL 1620 Delta Flight history → LGA 18:59 MIA 22:36 21% 11% 1.2% 58%
AA 3211 American Flight history → LGA 09:28 MIA 12:45 22% 3% 1.8% 76%
AA 1152 American Flight history → EWR 08:00 MIA 11:10 22% 4% 1.3% 93%worse than usual
B6 271 JetBlue Flight history → LGA 08:10 FLL 11:06 22% 5% 3.6% 80%
DL 1514 Delta Flight history → JFK 11:08 MIA 14:22 24% 5% 1.0% 78%
DL 1422 Delta Flight history → JFK 09:48 FLL 12:31 24% 4% 5.3% 88%worse than usual
DL 305 Delta Flight history → JFK 12:41 FLL 15:33 24% 5% 1.7% 80%
UA 2759 United EWR 11:56 FLL 15:11 25% 8% 1.6% no record
UA 2785 United Flight history → EWR 09:07 MIA 12:19 25% 4% 1.3% 97%worse than usual
UA 2151 United EWR 08:50 FLL 11:59 25% 6% 4.9% no record
DL 2300 Delta Flight history → LGA 15:40 MIA 19:23 26% 10% 1.2% 63%
DL 1419 Delta Flight history → JFK 17:11 FLL 20:10 26% 8% 2.3% 75%
AA 605 American Flight history → LGA 13:12 MIA 16:15 26% 7% 1.8% 68%
UA 1998 United EWR 10:23 FLL 13:39 26% 8% 1.7% no record
B6 1371 JetBlue Flight history → LGA 12:00 FLL 15:03 27% 10% 2.8% 61%
AA 3088 American Flight history → LGA 18:35 MIA 21:49 28% 11% 2.1% 35%
UA 651 United Flight history → EWR 13:10 FLL 16:20 29% 9% 1.6% 81%
AA 1922 American JFK 21:19 MIA 00:23 29% 9% 1.3% no record
B6 105 JetBlue Flight history → EWR 08:00 FLL 11:04 29% 7% 3.1% 72%
AA 1174 American Flight history → JFK 18:50 MIA 22:22 30% 9% 1.5% 74%
AA 688 American Flight history → JFK 11:08 MIA 14:10 30% 6% 1.2% 76%
AA 2525 American LGA 15:48 MIA 19:04 30% 9% 1.7% no record
B6 1601 JetBlue Flight history → JFK 08:16 FLL 11:14 31% 7% 3.7% 87%worse than usual
B6 371 JetBlue Flight history → LGA 18:37 FLL 21:34 31% 15% 4.0% 52%
DL 2500 Delta Flight history → JFK 16:41 MIA 19:43 32% 9% 1.1% 72%
AA 1801 American Flight history → EWR 12:25 MIA 15:31 32% 8% 1.3% 82%worse than usual
UA 2295 United Flight history → EWR 11:32 MIA 14:39 32% 6% 1.1% 81%worse than usual
B6 2201 JetBlue Flight history → JFK 12:30 FLL 15:40 33% 11% 2.7% 68%
AA 3135 American Flight history → LGA 17:11 MIA 20:22 33% 11% 2.1% 63%
UA 791 United EWR 20:33 MIA 23:44 34% 13% 1.2% no record
UA 435 United EWR 19:40 FLL 22:51 36% 13% 2.1% no record
UA 2096 United EWR 17:56 FLL 21:05 36% 12% 1.9% no record
B6 1201 JetBlue Flight history → JFK 16:41 FLL 19:49 37% 13% 3.8% 77%worse than usual
AA 642 American JFK 14:41 MIA 17:40 38% 10% 1.4% no record
AA 2228 American JFK 16:10 MIA 19:17 39% 10% 1.4% no record
B6 8807 JetBlue EWR 16:21 FLL 19:16 39% 15% 3.4% no record
UA 1498 United EWR 15:45 MIA 18:56 40% 11% 1.2% no record
B6 685 JetBlue Flight history → EWR 15:28 FLL 18:30 40% 16% 3.2% 42%
AA 2603 American Flight history → JFK 18:06 MIA 21:03 41% 9% 1.7% 66%
AA 3016 American EWR 18:34 MIA 21:54 42% 15% 2.0% no record
B6 1801 JetBlue Flight history → JFK 18:16 FLL 21:18 43% 14% 3.9% 65%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON