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Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 33 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 5770 at 07:05 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 12–38%.

Safest bet that day DL 5770 LGA 07:05 → DCA 08:32 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest B6 955 JFK 21:30 → DCA 22:59 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 53% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.

DL 5770 Delta flown by Republic Flight history → LGA 07:05 DCA 08:32 5% 2% 1.0% 89%
UA 1366 United Flight history → EWR 06:00 IAD 07:22 6% 3% 1.0% 96%
AA 4671 American flown by Republic Flight history → JFK 06:30 DCA 07:54 6% 2% 1.0% 67%
AA 4456 American flown by Republic Flight history → LGA 07:35 DCA 08:59 7% 2% 1.1% 36%
YX 5809 Republic JFK 10:00 IAD 11:28 8% 3% 0.6% no record
DL 5742 Delta flown by Republic Flight history → LGA 09:50 DCA 11:16 8% 2% 1.1% 83%
YX 4586 Republic JFK 08:40 DCA 10:06 9% 2% 1.0% no record
YX 4595 Republic LGA 10:25 DCA 11:39 9% 2% 1.1% no record
DL 5749 Delta flown by Republic Flight history → LGA 11:40 DCA 13:05 10% 3% 1.2% 78%
B6 8501 JetBlue JFK 05:59 DCA 07:25 10% 4% 1.2% no record
DL 5724 Delta flown by Republic Flight history → LGA 19:10 DCA 21:01 12% 8% 1.8% 50%
DL 5699 Delta flown by Republic Flight history → JFK 08:46 DCA 10:01 12% 3% 1.1% 60%
YX 5779 Republic JFK 16:17 IAD 17:45 13% 5% 0.6% no record
UA 1618 United EWR 10:06 IAD 11:31 15% 5% 1.0% no record
AA 4736 American flown by Republic Flight history → LGA 17:25 DCA 19:07 15% 7% 1.7% 74%
DL 5713 Delta flown by Republic Flight history → JFK 15:05 DCA 16:41 16% 5% 1.1% 81%
DL 5709 Delta flown by Republic Flight history → LGA 14:45 DCA 16:24 16% 6% 1.7% 61%
DL 5717 Delta flown by Republic Flight history → LGA 17:11 DCA 18:34 17% 7% 1.6% 62%
UA 3906 United EWR 13:03 IAD 14:32 17% 7% 1.4% no record
DL 5743 Delta flown by Republic Flight history → JFK 21:20 DCA 22:59 18% 6% 1.5% 68%
YX 4463 Republic JFK 21:20 DCA 22:47 19% 6% 1.4% no record
UA 2301 United EWR 15:12 IAD 16:39 25% 9% 1.0% no record
UA 1784 United Flight history → EWR 21:50 IAD 23:19 26% 9% 1.0% 79%
UA 2677 United Flight history → EWR 20:08 IAD 21:33 37% 13% 0.9% 65%
B6 955 JetBlue Flight history → JFK 21:30 DCA 22:59 38% 15% 1.7% 53%
UA 6242 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record LGA 10:29 IAD 11:55 18% 7% 4.3% 82%
UA 4446 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record EWR 08:09 DCA 09:32 20% 14% 5.4% 80%
UA 4172 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record EWR 11:00 DCA 12:23 28% 13% 3.7% 72%
UA 4472 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record EWR 13:00 DCA 14:23 29% 6% 13.9% 71%
UA 6244 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record LGA 19:28 IAD 20:55 31% 22% 14.7% 69%
DL 5076 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record JFK 16:40 IAD 18:32 38% 21% 12.7% 62%
UA 4457 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record EWR 20:20 DCA 21:53 55% 25% 9.5% 45%
UA 4486 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record EWR 15:30 DCA 16:57 58% 23% 4.7% 42%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON