Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, WN 473 at 10:22, with a 8% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 473 Southwest	OAK 10:22	BOI 13:06	8%	2%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Boise on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Boise is 1 h ahead of Oakland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	OAK 07:52 → PDX 09:29AS 2298 · flown by Horizon	1h 01m Portland	PDX 10:30 → BOI 12:49AS 2089 · flown by Horizon	3h 57m	96%	92%
Delta Details →	OAK 06:00 → SLC 08:55DL 4061 · flown by SkyWest	2h 10m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:05 → BOI 12:23DL 2095	5h 23m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	OAK 17:30 → SLC 20:23DL 3903 · flown by SkyWest	58m Salt Lake City	SLC 21:21 → BOI 22:40DL 4446 · flown by SkyWest	4h 10m	92%	82%
Delta Details →	OAK 12:30 → SLC 15:22DL 4134 · flown by SkyWest	2h 19m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:41 → BOI 18:58DL 2111	5h 28m	99%	81%
Alaska Details →	OAK 06:55 → SEA 08:54AS 705	3h 59m Seattle	SEA 12:53 → BOI 15:16AS 467	7h 21m	99%	75%
Alaska Details →	OAK 06:49 → SAN 08:25AS 2288 · flown by Horizon	2h 05m San Diego	SAN 10:30 → BOI 13:46AS 2341 · flown by Horizon	5h 57m	98%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON