Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 3152 at 06:37 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–16%.

Safest bet that day WN 3152 OAK 06:37 → BUR 08:01 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3158 OAK 17:52 → BUR 19:16 · 16% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3152 Southwest	OAK 06:37	BUR 08:01	4%	1%	1.2%	no record
WN 3153 Southwest	OAK 08:42	BUR 10:06	6%	1%	1.2%	no record
WN 3154 Southwest	OAK 11:32	BUR 12:56	11%	3%	1.1%	no record
WN 3157 Southwest	OAK 16:12	BUR 17:36	14%	5%	1.0%	no record
WN 714 Southwest	OAK 13:37	BUR 15:01	14%	4%	1.0%	no record
WN 3158 Southwest	OAK 17:52	BUR 19:16	16%	6%	1.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON