Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 12:30, is the safest bet: 72% chance of reaching Newark on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 54% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Newark on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Newark is 3 h ahead of Oakland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	OAK 12:30 → SLC 15:22DL 4134 · flown by SkyWest	2h 18m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:40 → EWR 23:54DL 2038	8h 24m	99%	72%
Delta Details →	OAK 06:00 → SLC 08:55DL 4061 · flown by SkyWest	2h 25m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:20 → EWR 17:41DL 2033	8h 41m	98%	65%
Alaska Details →	OAK 06:55 → SEA 08:54AS 705	1h 30m Seattle	SEA 10:24 → EWR 18:17AS 292	8h 22m	94%	62%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	OAK 19:47 → SEA 21:45AS 1359	53m Seattle	SEA 22:38 → EWR 06:23 +1AS 395	7h 36m	54%	41%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON