Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching Spokane on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 71% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Spokane on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	OAK 06:00 → SLC 08:55DL 4061 · flown by SkyWest	2h 35m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:30 → GEG 12:12DL 1452	6h 12m	99%	85%
Alaska Details →	OAK 07:52 → PDX 09:29AS 2298 · flown by Horizon	1h 01m Portland	PDX 10:30 → GEG 11:45AS 250	3h 53m	96%	84%
Alaska Details →	OAK 06:55 → SEA 08:54AS 705	1h 01m Seattle	SEA 09:55 → GEG 11:00AS 2200 · flown by Horizon	4h 05m	83%	75%
Delta Details →	OAK 17:30 → SLC 20:23DL 3903 · flown by SkyWest	47m Salt Lake City	SLC 21:10 → GEG 21:52DL 1466	4h 22m	86%	73%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	OAK 19:47 → SEA 21:45AS 1359	1h 06m Seattle	SEA 22:51 → GEG 23:56AS 1382	4h 09m	71%	47%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON