Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 3558 at 05:07 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–28%.

Safest bet that day WN 3558 OAK 05:07 → LAS 06:38 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 769 OAK 17:22 → LAS 19:04 · 28% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3558 Southwest	OAK 05:07	LAS 06:38	3%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 204 Southwest	OAK 08:42	LAS 10:29	7%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 1255 Southwest	OAK 12:17	LAS 14:04	18%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 4413 Southwest	OAK 15:12	LAS 16:54	24%	9%	0.9%	no record
F9 2046 Frontier	OAK 12:57	LAS 14:48	26%	10%	2.5%	no record
WN 3171 Southwest	OAK 19:14	LAS 20:47	26%	12%	0.9%	no record
WN 5019 Southwest	OAK 16:12	LAS 17:54	27%	14%	1.6%	no record
WN 769 Southwest	OAK 17:22	LAS 19:04	28%	15%	1.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON