Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 9–10% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 2624 Southwest	OAK 08:27	LIH 11:08	9%	2%	0.6%	no record
AS 967 Alaska Flight history →	OAK 10:33	LIH 13:08	10%	2%	0.9%	91%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Lihue on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Lihue is 3 h behind Oakland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	OAK 11:22 → HNL 14:04WN 808	3h 10m Honolulu	HNL 17:14 → LIH 18:09WN 1972	9h 47m	99%	87%
Alaska Details →	OAK 07:00 → OGG 09:17AS 923	2h 59m Kahului	OGG 12:16 → LIH 13:06AS 1049	9h 06m	98%	73%
Alaska Details →	OAK 08:25 → HNL 10:59AS 847	3h 39m Honolulu	HNL 14:38 → LIH 15:28AS 1103	10h 03m	99%	72%
Alaska Details →	OAK 06:55 → SEA 08:53AS 705	2h 35m Seattle	SEA 11:28 → LIH 14:40AS 258	10h 45m	99%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON