Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: WN 449 at 06:43 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 15%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 449 Southwest Flight history →	OAK 06:43	ONT 08:06	3%	1%	0.6%	31%
WN 1151 Southwest	OAK 16:57	ONT 18:30	15%	7%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Ontario on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	OAK 06:00 → SLC 08:55DL 4061 · flown by SkyWest	2h 29m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:24 → ONT 12:22DL 1173	6h 22m	98%	90%
Delta Details →	OAK 17:30 → SLC 20:23DL 3903 · flown by SkyWest	1h 12m Salt Lake City	SLC 21:35 → ONT 22:23DL 1614	4h 53m	95%	82%
Alaska Details →	OAK 06:55 → SEA 08:54AS 705	1h 35m Seattle	SEA 10:29 → ONT 13:04AS 571	6h 09m	95%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON