Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Alaska via Seattle, leaving 19:47, is the safest bet: 71% chance of reaching Chicago on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 2 h ahead of Oakland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	OAK 19:47 → SEA 21:45AS 1359	1h 54m Seattle	SEA 23:39 → ORD 05:30 +1AS 285	7h 43m	94%	71%
Delta Details →	OAK 12:30 → SLC 15:22DL 4134 · flown by SkyWest	1h 48m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:10 → ORD 21:20DL 2413	6h 50m	97%	70%
Alaska Details →	OAK 06:55 → SEA 08:54AS 705	3h 00m Seattle	SEA 11:54 → ORD 17:40AS 579	8h 45m	99%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON