Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 4501 at 06:22 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–17%.

Safest bet that day WN 4501 OAK 06:22 → PDX 08:16 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 2133 OAK 19:04 → PDX 20:56 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4501 Southwest	OAK 06:22	PDX 08:16	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 581 Southwest	OAK 00:14	PDX 01:52	7%	2%	0.6%	no record
QX 2122 Horizon	OAK 08:10	PDX 09:57	11%	3%	1.7%	no record
WN 450 Southwest	OAK 16:42	PDX 18:36	14%	6%	0.6%	no record
QX 2042 Horizon	OAK 12:04	PDX 13:56	15%	4%	1.6%	no record
AS 2133 Alaska flown by Horizon Flight history →	OAK 19:04	PDX 20:56	17%	5%	1.8%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON