Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 10 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 3194 at 05:41 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 7–26%.

Safest bet that day WN 3194 OAK 05:41 → SAN 07:20 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3200 OAK 18:44 → SAN 20:22 · 26% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 3194 Southwest	OAK 05:41	SAN 07:20	4%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 1778 Southwest	OAK 07:52	SAN 09:40	7%	2%	0.7%	no record
OO 3342 SkyWest	OAK 08:40	SAN 10:24	13%	6%	0.9%	no record
WN 2637 Southwest	OAK 10:42	SAN 12:25	14%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 3197 Southwest	OAK 12:02	SAN 13:45	17%	5%	0.7%	no record
OO 3050 SkyWest	OAK 15:25	SAN 17:09	22%	9%	0.9%	no record
WN 4947 Southwest	OAK 15:42	SAN 17:25	25%	8%	0.7%	no record
WN 3200 Southwest	OAK 18:44	SAN 20:22	26%	8%	0.7%	no record
AS 2288 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	OAK 06:49	SAN 08:25	4%	2%	7.7%	96%
AS 2229 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	OAK 20:10	SAN 21:47	46%	6%	2.0%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON