Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 4061 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 7–20%.

Safest bet that day DL 4061 OAK 06:00 → SLC 08:55 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest DL 8895 OAK 19:34 → SLC 22:24 · 20% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 4061 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	OAK 06:00	SLC 08:55	4%	2%	0.5%	97%
DL 4134 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	OAK 12:30	SLC 15:22	6%	3%	0.5%	93%
DL 3903 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	OAK 17:30	SLC 20:23	7%	3%	0.5%	92%
WN 270 Southwest	OAK 16:37	SLC 19:34	20%	5%	0.5%	no record
DL 8895 Delta	OAK 19:34	SLC 22:24	20%	6%	1.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON