Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: United via SFO, leaving 12:00, is the safest bet: 77% chance of reaching Denver on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 1735 United Flight history →	OGG 20:00	DEN 06:21	10%	3%	0.9%	93%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Denver on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Denver is 4 h ahead of Kahului). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	OGG 12:00 → SFO 19:59UA 1726	1h 21m San Francisco	SFO 21:20 → DEN 01:00 +1UA 301	9h 00m	94%	77%
United Details →	OGG 07:10 → SFO 15:09UA 1958	1h 24m San Francisco	SFO 16:33 → DEN 20:11UA 1835	9h 01m	98%	74%
Alaska Details →	OGG 07:00 → SEA 15:42AS 246	3h 18m Seattle	SEA 19:00 → DEN 22:45AS 310	11h 45m	100%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON