Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 PM ET · 28 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 3213 at 07:15 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 8–23%.

Safest bet that day WN 3213 OGG 07:15 → HNL 08:19 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 1125 OGG 13:41 → HNL 14:31 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3213 Southwest	OGG 07:15	HNL 08:19	3%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 3212 Southwest	OGG 05:55	HNL 06:59	5%	1%	0.8%	no record
WN 3214 Southwest	OGG 09:45	HNL 10:49	5%	1%	1.2%	no record
WN 3215 Southwest	OGG 11:55	HNL 12:59	7%	2%	0.8%	no record
WN 3218 Southwest	OGG 17:25	HNL 18:20	8%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 3217 Southwest	OGG 15:41	HNL 16:36	9%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 3219 Southwest	OGG 18:55	HNL 19:50	9%	2%	0.9%	no record
AS 1025 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 07:15	HNL 07:54	11%	2%	1.5%	88%
WN 3216 Southwest	OGG 13:50	HNL 14:54	11%	2%	0.9%	no record
AS 1035 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 08:15	HNL 08:54	12%	2%	1.9%	90%
AS 1015 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 05:52	HNL 06:42	13%	3%	1.6%	86%
AS 1085 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 11:20	HNL 12:10	16%	3%	1.7%	84%
AS 1045 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 08:41	HNL 09:20	16%	2%	1.8%	87%
AS 1055 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 09:18	HNL 09:58	17%	2%	2.6%	91%
AS 1435 Alaska	OGG 17:45	HNL 18:34	19%	5%	1.5%	no record
AS 1065 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 09:45	HNL 10:27	19%	2%	2.6%	82%
AS 1075 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 10:06	HNL 10:48	19%	3%	1.7%	80%
AS 1415 Alaska	OGG 10:09	HNL 10:58	20%	3%	1.7%	no record
AS 1095 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 12:06	HNL 12:56	20%	4%	1.7%	77%
AS 1175 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 18:34	HNL 19:24	21%	4%	1.8%	69%
AS 1425 Alaska	OGG 14:04	HNL 14:53	22%	5%	1.9%	no record
AS 1155 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 15:58	HNL 16:48	22%	5%	1.6%	68%
AS 1195 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 20:47	HNL 21:26	23%	5%	1.6%	73%
AS 1165 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 16:27	HNL 17:17	23%	6%	1.2%	65%
AS 1145 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 15:04	HNL 15:45	23%	5%	1.6%	65%
AS 1135 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 14:32	HNL 15:22	23%	6%	2.0%	67%
AS 1105 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 13:01	HNL 13:51	25%	4%	2.1%	84%
AS 1125 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 13:41	HNL 14:31	26%	5%	2.2%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON