tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Alaska via Honolulu, leaving 05:52, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Hilo on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 52% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Hilo on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AlaskaDetails → OGG 05:52 → HNL 06:42AS 1015 3h 19m Honolulu HNL 10:01 → ITO 10:55AS 1032 5h 03m 100% 83%
AlaskaDetails → OGG 07:15 → HNL 07:54AS 1025 3h 20m Honolulu HNL 11:14 → ITO 12:19AS 1042 5h 04m 100% 82%
AlaskaDetails → OGG 13:41 → HNL 14:31AS 1125 3h 37m Honolulu HNL 18:08 → ITO 19:13AS 1112 5h 32m 100% 77%
AlaskaDetails → OGG 15:04 → HNL 15:45AS 1145 3h 35m Honolulu HNL 19:20 → ITO 20:25AS 1122 5h 21m 100% 77%
AlaskaDetails → OGG 16:27 → HNL 17:17AS 1165 3h 46m Honolulu HNL 21:03 → ITO 22:08AS 1132 5h 41m 100% 76%
AlaskaDetails → OGG 09:45 → HNL 10:27AS 1065 3h 50m Honolulu HNL 14:17 → ITO 15:13AS 1072 5h 28m 100% 76%
AlaskaDetails → OGG 08:41 → HNL 09:20AS 1045 2h 58m Honolulu HNL 12:18 → ITO 13:14AS 1052 4h 33m 100% 75%
AlaskaDetails → OGG 10:06 → HNL 10:48AS 1075 2h 43m Honolulu HNL 13:31 → ITO 14:27AS 1062 4h 21m 99% 75%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → OGG 16:27 → HNL 17:17AS 1165 51m Honolulu HNL 18:08 → ITO 19:13AS 1112 2h 46m 64% 50%
AlaskaDetails → OGG 09:45 → HNL 10:27AS 1065 47m Honolulu HNL 11:14 → ITO 12:19AS 1042 2h 34m 54% 44%
AlaskaDetails → OGG 13:41 → HNL 14:31AS 1125 50m Honolulu HNL 15:21 → ITO 16:15AS 1082 2h 34m 52% 38%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON