Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 21–27% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 463 OGG 13:19 → LAX 21:40 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time Riskiest AA 254 OGG 13:14 → LAX 21:40 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 463 Delta Flight history →	OGG 13:19	LAX 21:40	21%	4%	1.1%	80%
UA 418 United Flight history →	OGG 13:09	LAX 21:26	21%	5%	0.9%	92%worse than usual
AS 981 Alaska	OGG 12:18	LAX 20:20	25%	6%	0.9%	no record
AS 934 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 15:00	LAX 23:07	27%	9%	0.8%	63%
AA 254 American Flight history →	OGG 13:14	LAX 21:40	27%	6%	0.9%	81%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Alaska Details →	OGG 05:52 → HNL 06:42AS 1015	1h 18m Honolulu	HNL 08:00 → LAX 16:20AS 810	7h 28m	95%	69%
Alaska Details →	OGG 18:34 → HNL 19:24AS 1175	1h 15m Honolulu	HNL 20:39 → LAX 05:00 +1AS 804	7h 26m	90%	67%
Alaska Details →	OGG 13:01 → HNL 13:51AS 1105	1h 30m Honolulu	HNL 15:21 → LAX 23:30AS 557	7h 29m	94%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON