tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Alaska via Honolulu, leaving 10:06, is the safest bet: 69% chance of reaching Portland on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AS 890 Alaska OGG 11:15 PDX 19:36 15% 4% 0.9% no record
AS 558 Alaska Flight history → OGG 21:50 PDX 06:03 16% 3% 0.9% 84%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Portland is 3 h ahead of Kahului). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AlaskaDetails → OGG 18:34 → HNL 19:24AS 1175 2h 20m Honolulu HNL 21:44 → PDX 06:10 +1AS 879 8h 36m 99% 78%
UnitedDetails → OGG 07:10 → SFO 15:09UA 1958 1h 39m San Francisco SFO 16:48 → PDX 18:40UA 1812 8h 30m 98% 76%
AlaskaDetails → OGG 08:41 → HNL 09:20AS 1045 3h 02m Honolulu HNL 12:22 → PDX 20:50AS 814 9h 09m 100% 73%
AlaskaDetails → OGG 05:52 → HNL 06:42AS 1015 56m Honolulu HNL 07:38 → PDX 16:10AS 860 7h 18m 81% 67%
UnitedDetails → OGG 12:00 → SFO 19:59UA 1726 51m San Francisco SFO 20:50 → PDX 22:48UA 2413 7h 48m 79% 65%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON