Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 3224 at 21:49 is the safest bet, 18% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 24–29%.

Safest bet that day WN 3224 OGG 21:49 → SAN 05:58 · 18% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 203 OGG 12:22 → SAN 20:43 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3224 Southwest	OGG 21:49	SAN 05:58	18%	5%	0.7%	no record
AS 484 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 23:03	SAN 07:20	24%	7%	1.4%	76%
AS 203 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 12:22	SAN 20:43	29%	7%	1.5%	74%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	OGG 12:00 → SFO 19:59UA 1726	57m San Francisco	SFO 20:56 → SAN 22:34UA 442	7h 34m	84%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON