Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AS 246 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–19%.

Safest bet that day AS 246 OGG 07:00 → SEA 15:42 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AS 930 OGG 12:55 → SEA 21:25 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 246 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 07:00	SEA 15:42	11%	3%	1.3%	93%
DL 394 Delta Flight history →	OGG 21:15	SEA 05:54	11%	3%	0.9%	96%
AS 206 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 21:40	SEA 06:17	19%	5%	1.5%	82%
AS 930 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 12:55	SEA 21:25	32%	9%	1.7%	59%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Alaska Details →	OGG 08:41 → HNL 09:20AS 1045	2h 03m Honolulu	HNL 11:23 → SEA 19:54AS 267	8h 13m	99%	69%
Alaska Details →	OGG 12:06 → HNL 12:56AS 1095	1h 38m Honolulu	HNL 14:34 → SEA 23:04AS 627	7h 58m	96%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON