Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Alaska via Honolulu, leaving 09:18, is the safest bet: 71% chance of reaching San Jose on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 70% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 954 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 13:22	SJC 21:30	22%	8%	1.2%	74%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Jose on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Jose is 3 h ahead of Kahului). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	OGG 20:47 → HNL 21:26AS 1195	2h 20m Honolulu	HNL 23:46 → SJC 07:55 +1AS 9677	8h 08m	99%	78%
Alaska Details →	OGG 07:15 → HNL 07:54AS 1025	3h 48m Honolulu	HNL 11:42 → SJC 20:00AS 839	9h 45m	100%	75%
Alaska Details →	OGG 07:00 → SEA 15:42AS 246	2h 02m Seattle	SEA 17:44 → SJC 19:49AS 1303	9h 49m	97%	66%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	OGG 10:06 → HNL 10:48AS 1075	54m Honolulu	HNL 11:42 → SJC 20:00AS 839	6h 54m	70%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON