Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Alaska via Honolulu, leaving 09:45, is the safest bet: 67% chance of reaching Sacramento on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 960 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 13:53	SMF 22:01	27%	8%	1.7%	73%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sacramento on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 3 h ahead of Kahului). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	OGG 10:31 → KOA 11:21AS 1030	2h 26m Kailua/Kona	KOA 13:47 → SMF 22:01AS 843	8h 30m	99%	82%
Alaska Details →	OGG 08:41 → HNL 09:20AS 1045	2h 52m Honolulu	HNL 12:12 → SMF 20:23AS 820	8h 42m	100%	69%
United Details →	OGG 07:10 → SFO 15:09UA 1958	3h 28m San Francisco	SFO 18:37 → SMF 19:26UA 1862	9h 16m	98%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON