tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: United via Denver, leaving 06:05, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching Austin on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 65% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Austin on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → OKC 06:05 → DEN 06:58UA 4751 · flown by SkyWest 2h 44m Denver DEN 09:42 → AUS 13:02UA 1026 6h 57m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → OKC 07:45 → MSP 09:58DL 3844 · flown by SkyWest 1h 52m Minneapolis MSP 11:50 → AUS 14:40DL 2062 6h 55m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → OKC 05:49 → ATL 08:56DL 1184 2h 09m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → AUS 12:25DL 2011 6h 36m 98% 83%
DeltaDetails → OKC 08:50 → ATL 12:02DL 1158 2h 13m Atlanta ATL 14:15 → AUS 15:50DL 1397 7h 00m 98% 82%
SouthwestDetails → OKC 12:11 → HOU 13:47WN 4760 3h 46m Houston HOU 17:33 → AUS 18:34WN 4284 6h 23m 100% 80%
DeltaDetails → OKC 11:54 → ATL 15:04DL 2490 2h 16m Atlanta ATL 17:20 → AUS 18:50DL 1491 6h 56m 99% 79%
UnitedDetails → OKC 09:39 → IAH 11:15UA 6255 · flown by Mesa 3h 05m Houston IAH 14:20 → AUS 15:29UA 6118 · flown by Mesa 5h 50m 99% 77%
AmericanDetails → OKC 05:01 → DFW 06:07AA 656 2h 39m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:46 → AUS 09:54AA 794 4h 53m 98% 77%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → OKC 10:17 → DFW 11:39AA 2272 49m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:28 → AUS 13:36AA 1852 3h 19m 71% 50%
AmericanDetails → OKC 15:16 → DFW 16:28AA 2929 53m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:21 → AUS 18:22AA 3722 · flown by Envoy 3h 06m 68% 47%
AmericanDetails → OKC 18:19 → DFW 19:36AA 2812 57m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:33 → AUS 21:37AA 2707 3h 18m 65% 36%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON