Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: WN 367 at 05:27 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 16%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 367 Southwest	OKC 05:27	DAL 06:41	2%	1%	0.8%	no record
WN 2661 Southwest	OKC 16:41	DAL 17:55	16%	10%	1.2%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	OKC 12:11 → HOU 13:47WN 4760	3h 31m Houston	HOU 17:18 → DAL 18:35WN 44	6h 24m	100%	81%
Delta Details →	OKC 11:54 → ATL 15:04DL 2490	1h 40m Atlanta	ATL 16:44 → DAL 17:54DL 2780	6h 00m	97%	78%
Delta Details →	OKC 16:00 → ATL 19:16DL 2862	1h 59m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → DAL 22:25DL 1104	6h 25m	94%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON