Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, AA 5017 at 15:07, with a 22% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 5017 American flown by PSA Flight history →	OKC 15:07	DCA 19:24	22%	10%	1.9%	72%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 1 h ahead of Oklahoma City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	OKC 06:05 → DEN 06:58UA 4751 · flown by SkyWest	2h 32m Denver	DEN 09:30 → DCA 14:59UA 789	7h 54m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	OKC 05:49 → ATL 08:56DL 1184	2h 04m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → DCA 12:52DL 1798	6h 03m	98%	84%
American Details →	OKC 05:01 → DFW 06:07AA 656	2h 43m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 08:50 → DCA 12:52AA 1177	6h 51m	98%	83%
United Details →	OKC 13:53 → IAH 15:35UA 5531 · flown by SkyWest	2h 28m Houston	IAH 18:03 → DCA 22:15UA 1627	7h 22m	97%	80%
Southwest Details →	OKC 12:11 → HOU 13:47WN 4760	3h 11m Houston	HOU 16:58 → DCA 21:04WN 1569	7h 53m	100%	79%
Delta Details →	OKC 06:20 → LGA 10:49DL 5172 · flown by Endeavor	3h 56m New York	LGA 14:45 → DCA 16:24DL 5709 · flown by Republic	9h 04m	96%	78%
Delta Details →	OKC 16:00 → ATL 19:16DL 2862	2h 43m Atlanta	ATL 21:59 → DCA 23:52DL 537	6h 52m	97%	78%
Delta Details →	OKC 11:54 → ATL 15:04DL 2490	3h 51m Atlanta	ATL 18:55 → DCA 20:47DL 325	7h 53m	99%	78%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	OKC 15:16 → DFW 16:28AA 2929	47m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 17:15 → DCA 21:31AA 472	5h 15m	57%	39%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON