Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 4751 at 06:05 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–25%.

Safest bet that day UA 4751 OKC 06:05 → DEN 06:58 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest WN 2758 OKC 17:52 → DEN 18:31 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 4751 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	OKC 06:05	DEN 06:58	6%	4%	0.6%	94%
WN 2452 Southwest	OKC 07:11	DEN 08:03	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 2149 Southwest	OKC 11:21	DEN 12:28	8%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 2609 United Flight history →	OKC 08:54	DEN 09:35	12%	5%	0.6%	77%
F9 1927 Frontier Flight history →	OKC 19:16	DEN 20:07	21%	9%	7.1%	80%
UA 2422 United	OKC 17:04	DEN 18:18	24%	9%	0.9%	no record
WN 2758 Southwest	OKC 17:52	DEN 18:31	25%	6%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON