Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 656 at 05:01 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 31–33%.

Safest bet that day AA 656 OKC 05:01 → DFW 06:07 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 2812 OKC 18:19 → DFW 19:36 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 35% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 656 American Flight history →	OKC 05:01	DFW 06:07	7%	5%	1.2%	92%
AA 3119 American	OKC 06:08	DFW 07:23	9%	5%	1.2%	no record
AA 6203 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	OKC 08:25	DFW 09:44	14%	8%	1.0%	86%
AA 2272 American Flight history →	OKC 10:17	DFW 11:39	16%	7%	1.2%	86%
AA 1902 American Flight history →	OKC 11:10	DFW 12:19	17%	7%	1.2%	81%
AA 3099 American	OKC 12:23	DFW 13:30	24%	10%	1.2%	no record
AA 2929 American Flight history →	OKC 15:16	DFW 16:28	27%	15%	1.9%	72%
AA 2832 American	OKC 17:34	DFW 18:50	31%	15%	3.6%	no record
AA 2812 American Flight history →	OKC 18:19	DFW 19:36	33%	15%	3.7%	35%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON