tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: WN 4377 at 05:56 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 22%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 4377 Southwest OKC 05:56 LAS 06:49 3% 1% 0.6% no record
WN 4504 Southwest OKC 17:51 LAS 18:44 22% 13% 1.3% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Las Vegas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 2 h behind Oklahoma City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → OKC 06:05 → DEN 06:58UA 4751 · flown by SkyWest 1h 07m Denver DEN 08:05 → LAS 09:07UA 2316 5h 02m 96% 87%
DeltaDetails → OKC 07:45 → MSP 09:58DL 3844 · flown by SkyWest 1h 12m Minneapolis MSP 11:10 → LAS 12:26DL 2238 6h 41m 97% 85%
UnitedDetails → OKC 08:54 → DEN 09:35UA 2609 1h 47m Denver DEN 11:22 → LAS 12:24UA 526 5h 30m 98% 81%
UnitedDetails → OKC 09:39 → IAH 11:15UA 6255 · flown by Mesa 3h 05m Houston IAH 14:20 → LAS 15:37UA 1971 7h 58m 99% 80%
DeltaDetails → OKC 05:49 → ATL 08:56DL 1184 2h 04m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → LAS 12:05DL 466 8h 16m 98% 80%
DeltaDetails → OKC 08:50 → ATL 12:02DL 1158 1h 43m Atlanta ATL 13:45 → LAS 14:50DL 549 8h 00m 97% 77%
DeltaDetails → OKC 08:26 → SLC 10:07DL 4029 · flown by SkyWest 1h 28m Salt Lake City SLC 11:35 → LAS 12:01DL 1659 5h 35m 97% 76%
DeltaDetails → OKC 17:56 → SLC 19:30DL 3882 · flown by SkyWest 2h 00m Salt Lake City SLC 21:30 → LAS 21:58DL 1662 6h 02m 97% 76%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON