tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, YX 4426 at 14:41, with a 17% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
YX 4426 Republic OKC 14:41 LGA 19:19 17% 7% 3.1% no record
DL 5172 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record OKC 06:20 LGA 10:52 11% 6% 1.8% 89%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 1 h ahead of Oklahoma City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → OKC 07:45 → MSP 09:58DL 3844 · flown by SkyWest 3h 04m Minneapolis MSP 13:02 → LGA 16:44DL 2756 7h 59m 100% 87%
UnitedDetails → OKC 06:05 → DEN 06:58UA 4751 · flown by SkyWest 1h 05m Denver DEN 08:03 → LGA 13:57UA 1442 6h 52m 96% 86%
DeltaDetails → OKC 05:49 → ATL 08:56DL 1184 3h 34m Atlanta ATL 12:30 → LGA 14:50DL 525 8h 01m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → OKC 08:50 → ATL 12:02DL 1158 1h 28m Atlanta ATL 13:30 → LGA 15:50DL 460 6h 00m 96% 81%
DeltaDetails → OKC 11:54 → ATL 15:04DL 2490 1h 56m Atlanta ATL 17:00 → LGA 19:27DL 997 6h 33m 98% 80%
DeltaDetails → OKC 16:00 → ATL 19:16DL 2862 1h 44m Atlanta ATL 21:00 → LGA 23:24DL 520 6h 24m 93% 79%
AmericanDetails → OKC 05:01 → DFW 06:07AA 656 2h 20m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:27 → LGA 13:10AA 1056 7h 09m 97% 78%
UnitedDetails → OKC 13:53 → IAH 15:35UA 5531 · flown by SkyWest 3h 02m Houston IAH 18:37 → LGA 23:22UA 2682 8h 29m 98% 76%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → OKC 11:10 → DFW 12:19AA 1902 46m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:05 → LGA 17:45AA 672 5h 35m 65% 44%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON