Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, WN 4019 at 06:54, with a 6% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 4019 Southwest	OKC 06:54	MCO 10:33	6%	2%	4.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Orlando on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Orlando is 1 h ahead of Oklahoma City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	OKC 07:45 → MSP 09:58DL 3844 · flown by SkyWest	2h 47m Minneapolis	MSP 12:45 → MCO 17:04DL 2225	8h 19m	99%	82%
United Details →	OKC 06:05 → DEN 06:58UA 4751 · flown by SkyWest	1h 12m Denver	DEN 08:10 → MCO 13:57UA 2292	6h 52m	97%	80%
United Details →	OKC 13:53 → IAH 15:35UA 5531 · flown by SkyWest	3h 54m Houston	IAH 19:29 → MCO 23:05UA 3883	8h 12m	99%	80%
Southwest Details →	OKC 12:11 → HOU 13:47WN 4760	2h 16m Houston	HOU 16:03 → MCO 19:26WN 1342	6h 15m	100%	80%
United Details →	OKC 09:39 → IAH 11:15UA 6255 · flown by Mesa	3h 21m Houston	IAH 14:36 → MCO 18:14UA 496	7h 35m	100%	79%
Delta Details →	OKC 05:49 → ATL 08:56DL 1184	1h 29m Atlanta	ATL 10:25 → MCO 12:00DL 664	5h 11m	97%	75%
Delta Details →	OKC 08:50 → ATL 12:02DL 1158	57m Atlanta	ATL 12:59 → MCO 14:34DL 1372	4h 44m	92%	74%
Delta Details →	OKC 06:20 → LGA 10:49DL 5172 · flown by Endeavor	1h 00m New York	LGA 11:49 → MCO 14:42DL 2564	7h 22m	89%	73%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	OKC 15:07 → DCA 19:24AA 5017 · flown by PSA	48m Washington	DCA 20:12 → MCO 22:43AA 2139	6h 36m	71%	55%
American Details →	OKC 15:16 → DFW 16:28AA 2929	50m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 17:18 → MCO 21:10AA 2974	4h 54m	61%	34%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON