Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: American via DFW, leaving 05:01, is the safest bet: 66% chance of reaching Miami on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


YX 4653 Republic	OKC 06:38	MIA 11:12	14%	5%	1.1%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Miami is 1 h ahead of Oklahoma City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	OKC 06:05 → DEN 06:58UA 4751 · flown by SkyWest	2h 54m Denver	DEN 09:52 → MIA 16:00UA 1418	8h 55m	99%	75%
Delta Details →	OKC 05:49 → ATL 08:56DL 1184	2h 09m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → MIA 13:07DL 1332	6h 18m	98%	73%
United Details →	OKC 13:53 → IAH 15:35UA 5531 · flown by SkyWest	3h 26m Houston	IAH 19:01 → MIA 22:40UA 1829	7h 47m	98%	70%
Delta Details →	OKC 08:50 → ATL 12:02DL 1158	1h 33m Atlanta	ATL 13:35 → MIA 15:43DL 1323	5h 53m	97%	68%
American Details →	OKC 05:01 → DFW 06:07AA 656	1h 03m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 07:10 → MIA 11:11AA 3290	5h 10m	93%	66%
Delta Details →	OKC 16:00 → ATL 19:16DL 2862	3h 37m Atlanta	ATL 22:53 → MIA 00:55 +1DL 1589	7h 55m	98%	66%
Delta Details →	OKC 08:44 → LGA 13:20DL 5172 · flown by Endeavor	2h 20m New York	LGA 15:40 → MIA 19:23DL 2300	9h 39m	95%	65%
Delta Details →	OKC 11:54 → ATL 15:04DL 2490	2h 44m Atlanta	ATL 17:48 → MIA 19:44DL 719	6h 50m	99%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON