Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, DL 3844 at 07:45, with a 6% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 3844 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	OKC 07:45	MSP 09:58	6%	4%	0.6%	89%
DL 5142 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	OKC 11:57	MSP 14:03	24%	9%	0.0%	76%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	OKC 06:05 → DEN 06:58UA 4751 · flown by SkyWest	2h 42m Denver	DEN 09:40 → MSP 12:40UA 397	6h 35m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	OKC 05:49 → ATL 08:56DL 1184	3h 21m Atlanta	ATL 12:17 → MSP 13:50DL 2901	8h 01m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	OKC 08:26 → SLC 10:07DL 4029 · flown by SkyWest	3h 53m Salt Lake City	SLC 14:00 → MSP 17:32DL 2936	9h 06m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	OKC 08:50 → ATL 12:02DL 1158	2h 29m Atlanta	ATL 14:31 → MSP 16:07DL 2825	7h 17m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	OKC 16:00 → ATL 19:16DL 2862	3h 44m Atlanta	ATL 23:00 → MSP 00:39 +1DL 1310	8h 39m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	OKC 11:54 → ATL 15:04DL 2490	2h 34m Atlanta	ATL 17:38 → MSP 19:15DL 2981	7h 21m	99%	83%
United Details →	OKC 09:39 → IAH 11:15UA 6255 · flown by Mesa	3h 13m Houston	IAH 14:28 → MSP 17:06UA 1818	7h 27m	99%	76%
American Details →	OKC 07:35 → ORD 09:58AA 4994 · flown by SkyWest	1h 51m Chicago	ORD 11:49 → MSP 13:55AA 2448	6h 20m	98%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON