Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 2183 at 07:13 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24%.

Safest bet that day UA 2183 OKC 07:13 → ORD 09:28 · 13% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 6484 OKC 19:16 → ORD 21:25 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2183 United	OKC 07:13	ORD 09:28	13%	6%	0.7%	no record
AA 4994 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	OKC 07:35	ORD 09:58	14%	8%	1.0%	63%
UA 5823 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	OKC 08:45	ORD 11:11	15%	8%	1.0%	78%
AA 6395 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	OKC 13:42	ORD 15:59	21%	13%	1.9%	73%
UA 5867 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	OKC 13:18	ORD 15:43	22%	12%	1.9%	76%
MQ 4037 Envoy	OKC 12:40	ORD 14:55	22%	7%	1.2%	no record
OO 4744 SkyWest	OKC 17:51	ORD 20:15	24%	13%	1.3%	no record
AA 6484 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	OKC 19:16	ORD 21:25	24%	15%	7.4%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON