Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 2957 at 10:21 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 12–17%.

Safest bet that day WN 2957 OKC 10:21 → PHX 10:58 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 4894 OKC 14:56 → PHX 15:30 · 17% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2957 Southwest	OKC 10:21	PHX 10:58	6%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 1268 Southwest	OKC 15:21	PHX 15:58	12%	6%	0.8%	no record
AA 6392 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	OKC 08:59	PHX 09:32	12%	9%	0.7%	84%
OO 4894 SkyWest	OKC 14:56	PHX 15:30	17%	12%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON