Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, AS 405 at 14:55, with a 18% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 405 Alaska Flight history →	OKC 14:55	SEA 16:53	18%	5%	1.0%	86%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Seattle on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 2 h behind Oklahoma City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	OKC 07:45 → MSP 09:58DL 3844 · flown by SkyWest	1h 12m Minneapolis	MSP 11:10 → SEA 13:00DL 889	7h 15m	97%	86%
Delta Details →	OKC 05:49 → ATL 08:56DL 1184	3h 37m Atlanta	ATL 12:33 → SEA 14:50DL 629	11h 01m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	OKC 08:50 → ATL 12:02DL 1158	2h 26m Atlanta	ATL 14:28 → SEA 16:43DL 481	9h 53m	98%	77%
Delta Details →	OKC 08:26 → SLC 10:07DL 4029 · flown by SkyWest	1h 28m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:35 → SEA 12:49DL 2995	6h 23m	97%	77%
Delta Details →	OKC 11:54 → ATL 15:04DL 2490	1h 41m Atlanta	ATL 16:45 → SEA 19:05DL 472	9h 11m	97%	72%
United Details →	OKC 08:54 → DEN 09:35UA 2609	1h 50m Denver	DEN 11:25 → SEA 13:24UA 2058	6h 30m	98%	71%
United Details →	OKC 06:05 → DEN 06:58UA 4751 · flown by SkyWest	1h 03m Denver	DEN 08:01 → SEA 10:03UA 1348	5h 58m	96%	71%
Delta Details →	OKC 16:00 → ATL 19:16DL 2862	2h 19m Atlanta	ATL 21:35 → SEA 23:59DL 903	9h 59m	96%	70%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	OKC 15:16 → DFW 16:28AA 2929	1h 02m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 17:30 → SEA 19:50AA 1483	6h 34m	74%	41%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON