Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: AA 1042 at 06:20 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 23%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 1042 American Flight history →	OMA 06:20	CLT 09:58	9%	2%	0.7%	91%
AA 1079 American	OMA 15:01	CLT 18:33	23%	5%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charlotte on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Charlotte is 1 h ahead of Omaha). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	OMA 05:25 → ATL 08:41DL 1136	3h 39m Atlanta	ATL 12:20 → CLT 13:31DL 2157	7h 06m	99%	82%
United Details →	OMA 06:00 → DEN 06:49UA 1442	3h 04m Denver	DEN 09:53 → CLT 15:17UA 2231	8h 17m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	OMA 08:05 → MSP 09:30DL 3512 · flown by SkyWest	3h 25m Minneapolis	MSP 12:55 → CLT 16:27DL 2819	7h 22m	98%	81%
Delta Details →	OMA 15:55 → ATL 19:12DL 2364	3h 29m Atlanta	ATL 22:41 → CLT 23:58DL 3177	7h 03m	99%	80%
Delta Details →	OMA 06:25 → DTW 09:28DL 4110 · flown by SkyWest	1h 09m Detroit	DTW 10:37 → CLT 12:24DL 2684	4h 59m	92%	79%
American Details →	OMA 07:28 → PHL 11:38AA 5074 · flown by PSA	2h 11m Philadelphia	PHL 13:49 → CLT 15:45AA 793	7h 17m	98%	77%
Delta Details →	OMA 12:00 → ATL 15:21DL 1125	3h 38m Atlanta	ATL 18:59 → CLT 20:07DL 2132	7h 07m	99%	75%
Delta Details →	OMA 10:28 → DTW 13:30DL 4055 · flown by SkyWest	1h 24m Detroit	DTW 14:54 → CLT 16:48DL 1429	5h 20m	90%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON