tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 91% chance of reaching Washington on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 74% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 1 h ahead of Omaha). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → OMA 06:00 → MSP 07:21DL 3864 · flown by SkyWest 3h 04m Minneapolis MSP 10:25 → DCA 13:48DL 2983 6h 48m 99% 91%
UnitedDetails → OMA 06:00 → DEN 06:49UA 1442 2h 41m Denver DEN 09:30 → DCA 14:59UA 789 7h 59m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → OMA 05:25 → ATL 08:41DL 1136 2h 19m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → DCA 12:52DL 1798 6h 27m 98% 85%
UnitedDetails → OMA 06:15 → IAH 08:37UA 2399 3h 18m Houston IAH 11:55 → DCA 16:03UA 654 8h 48m 99% 83%
AmericanDetails → OMA 05:20 → DFW 07:20AA 2540 1h 30m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:50 → DCA 12:52AA 1177 6h 32m 97% 82%
DeltaDetails → OMA 06:00 → LGA 09:55DL 5295 · flown by Endeavor 1h 45m New York LGA 11:40 → DCA 13:05DL 5749 · flown by Republic 6h 05m 94% 80%
DeltaDetails → OMA 15:55 → ATL 19:12DL 2364 2h 47m Atlanta ATL 21:59 → DCA 23:52DL 537 6h 57m 98% 79%
DeltaDetails → OMA 07:50 → ATL 11:02DL 1157 2h 07m Atlanta ATL 13:09 → DCA 14:56DL 360 6h 06m 98% 79%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → OMA 15:19 → ORD 17:05UA 739 55m Chicago ORD 18:00 → DCA 21:10UA 1369 4h 51m 74% 57%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON