Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 2612 at 06:22 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–18%.

Safest bet that day WN 2612 OMA 06:22 → DEN 06:57 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 1127 OMA 20:00 → DEN 20:50 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2612 Southwest	OMA 06:22	DEN 06:57	4%	1%	0.5%	no record
UA 1442 United Flight history →	OMA 06:00	DEN 06:49	5%	2%	0.6%	94%
WN 3247 Southwest	OMA 12:56	DEN 13:32	9%	2%	0.5%	no record
UA 1195 United Flight history →	OMA 13:48	DEN 14:35	12%	4%	0.5%	85%
UA 2838 United Flight history →	OMA 09:06	DEN 09:55	13%	3%	0.5%	76%
WN 827 Southwest	OMA 17:55	DEN 18:48	16%	4%	0.5%	no record
UA 1573 United	OMA 17:14	DEN 18:14	17%	5%	0.5%	no record
F9 1127 Frontier Flight history →	OMA 20:00	DEN 20:50	18%	5%	0.6%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON