Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 2540 at 05:20 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 21–28%.

Safest bet that day AA 2540 OMA 05:20 → DFW 07:20 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 2269 OMA 18:24 → DFW 20:25 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2540 American Flight history →	OMA 05:20	DFW 07:20	9%	3%	1.0%	89%
AA 2135 American	OMA 09:50	DFW 11:47	21%	5%	1.1%	no record
AA 2823 American Flight history →	OMA 14:15	DFW 16:13	24%	6%	1.5%	63%
AA 2269 American Flight history →	OMA 18:24	DFW 20:25	28%	8%	3.4%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON