Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, WN 274 at 14:12, with a 9% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 274 Southwest	OMA 14:12	HOU 16:36	9%	3%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	OMA 05:20 → DFW 07:20AA 2540	1h 42m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:02 → HOU 10:31AA 9754	5h 11m	97%	79%
Delta Details →	OMA 15:55 → ATL 19:12DL 2364	1h 33m Atlanta	ATL 20:45 → HOU 21:51DL 2051	5h 56m	93%	71%
American Details →	OMA 14:15 → DFW 16:13AA 2823	2h 24m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:37 → HOU 19:58AA 3391 · flown by Envoy	5h 43m	97%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON