tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: WN 3584 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 20%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 3584 Southwest OMA 07:00 LAS 08:09 4% 1% 0.7% no record
WN 2548 Southwest OMA 17:25 LAS 18:39 20% 11% 1.3% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Las Vegas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 2 h behind Omaha). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → OMA 06:00 → MSP 07:21DL 3864 · flown by SkyWest 1h 52m Minneapolis MSP 09:13 → LAS 10:31DL 2262 6h 31m 98% 88%
UnitedDetails → OMA 06:00 → DEN 06:49UA 1442 1h 16m Denver DEN 08:05 → LAS 09:07UA 2316 5h 07m 96% 87%
UnitedDetails → OMA 06:15 → IAH 08:37UA 2399 3h 18m Houston IAH 11:55 → LAS 13:13UA 1524 8h 58m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → OMA 08:05 → MSP 09:30DL 3512 · flown by SkyWest 1h 40m Minneapolis MSP 11:10 → LAS 12:26DL 2238 6h 21m 96% 85%
UnitedDetails → OMA 09:06 → DEN 09:55UA 2838 3h 35m Denver DEN 13:30 → LAS 14:38UA 493 7h 32m 100% 81%
DeltaDetails → OMA 05:25 → ATL 08:41DL 1136 2h 19m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → LAS 12:05DL 466 8h 40m 98% 80%
DeltaDetails → OMA 07:50 → ATL 11:02DL 1157 2h 43m Atlanta ATL 13:45 → LAS 14:50DL 549 9h 00m 99% 79%
DeltaDetails → OMA 06:25 → DTW 09:28DL 4110 · flown by SkyWest 2h 47m Detroit DTW 12:15 → LAS 13:28DL 421 9h 03m 97% 79%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → OMA 18:24 → DFW 20:25AA 2269 1h 02m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:27 → LAS 22:18AA 2371 5h 54m 72% 31%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON