Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: United via Denver, leaving 13:48, is the safest bet: 77% chance of reaching Los Angeles on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 71% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 6227 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	OMA 06:00	LAX 07:41	6%	3%	0.6%	92%
AA 6506 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	OMA 15:03	LAX 16:43	8%	3%	0.5%	85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Los Angeles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Los Angeles is 2 h behind Omaha). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	OMA 08:05 → MSP 09:30DL 3512 · flown by SkyWest	3h 33m Minneapolis	MSP 13:03 → LAX 14:59DL 2974	8h 54m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	OMA 05:25 → ATL 08:41DL 1136	3h 59m Atlanta	ATL 12:40 → LAX 14:12DL 895	10h 47m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	OMA 06:00 → MSP 07:21DL 3864 · flown by SkyWest	1h 59m Minneapolis	MSP 09:20 → LAX 11:10DL 2102	7h 10m	98%	84%
United Details →	OMA 06:00 → DEN 06:49UA 1442	3h 13m Denver	DEN 10:02 → LAX 11:34UA 405	7h 34m	99%	84%
United Details →	OMA 09:06 → DEN 09:55UA 2838	3h 31m Denver	DEN 13:26 → LAX 14:57UA 774	7h 51m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	OMA 12:00 → ATL 15:21DL 1125	3h 29m Atlanta	ATL 18:50 → LAX 20:21DL 996	10h 21m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	OMA 07:50 → ATL 11:02DL 1157	3h 43m Atlanta	ATL 14:45 → LAX 16:17DL 753	10h 27m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	OMA 08:10 → SLC 09:52DL 3874 · flown by SkyWest	1h 38m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:30 → LAX 12:27DL 829	6h 17m	99%	82%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	OMA 18:24 → DFW 20:25AA 2269	1h 00m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 21:25 → LAX 22:39AA 2038	6h 15m	71%	33%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON