tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, WN 927 at 13:00, with a 16% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 927 Southwest OMA 13:00 LGA 17:03 16% 6% 0.9% no record
DL 5295 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record OMA 06:00 LGA 09:56 11% 6% 5.2% 89%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 1 h ahead of Omaha). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → OMA 06:00 → MSP 07:21DL 3864 · flown by SkyWest 1h 34m Minneapolis MSP 08:55 → LGA 12:36DL 2719 5h 36m 98% 89%
UnitedDetails → OMA 06:00 → DEN 06:49UA 1442 1h 14m Denver DEN 08:03 → LGA 13:57UA 1442 6h 57m 96% 87%
DeltaDetails → OMA 05:25 → ATL 08:41DL 1136 3h 49m Atlanta ATL 12:30 → LGA 14:50DL 525 8h 25m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → OMA 08:05 → MSP 09:30DL 3512 · flown by SkyWest 3h 32m Minneapolis MSP 13:02 → LGA 16:44DL 2756 7h 39m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → OMA 06:25 → DTW 09:28DL 4110 · flown by SkyWest 2h 47m Detroit DTW 12:15 → LGA 14:05DL 1669 6h 40m 97% 83%
DeltaDetails → OMA 07:50 → ATL 11:02DL 1157 2h 28m Atlanta ATL 13:30 → LGA 15:50DL 460 7h 00m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → OMA 15:55 → ATL 19:12DL 2364 1h 48m Atlanta ATL 21:00 → LGA 23:24DL 520 6h 29m 96% 82%
UnitedDetails → OMA 13:48 → DEN 14:35UA 1195 2h 45m Denver DEN 17:20 → LGA 23:13UA 2033 8h 25m 99% 80%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON