Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 1486 at 05:59 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–19%.

Safest bet that day UA 1486 OMA 05:59 → ORD 07:43 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 739 OMA 15:19 → ORD 17:05 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1486 United	OMA 05:59	ORD 07:43	8%	4%	0.7%	no record
OO 5385 SkyWest	OMA 07:59	ORD 09:47	13%	5%	1.0%	no record
AA 3197 American Flight history →	OMA 07:10	ORD 09:01	14%	4%	0.9%	89%
UA 600 United Flight history →	OMA 11:23	ORD 13:15	14%	6%	0.7%	80%
MQ 3712 Envoy	OMA 20:11	ORD 21:53	15%	5%	1.5%	no record
AA 4042 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	OMA 10:30	ORD 12:15	16%	5%	1.0%	93%
OO 5511 SkyWest	OMA 13:04	ORD 15:00	18%	10%	1.5%	no record
OO 5328 SkyWest	OMA 18:26	ORD 20:19	19%	7%	1.3%	no record
MQ 3558 Envoy	OMA 12:23	ORD 14:04	19%	6%	1.0%	no record
UA 739 United Flight history →	OMA 15:19	ORD 17:05	21%	8%	0.8%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON